With the 2024 general election on the horizon, parties and candidates are ramping up their campaigns in a ballot that could see multiple longtime party strongholds change hands.
While competition is expected to be fiercest in the north of England, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are attempting to make important incursions further south.
Kingston and Surbiton
Since 1997, Kingston and Surbiton has consistently voted for the Liberal Democrats and, bar a brief Conservative stint in 2015, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has been the constituency’s MP for the best part of three decades.
Sir Ed is once again running this year and his primary opponent is likely to be Conservative candidate Helen Edwards.
Sir Ed’s campaign will focus on further scrutiny and regulation of the water companies, having previously promised to instate a new water regulator.
According to the political forecasting site Electoral Calculus’s May 27 prediction, Sir Ed is expected to successfully defend his seat in the coming election.
Twickenham
Twickenham has also been a Liberal Democrat safe seat which was represented by former leader Sir Vince Cable from 1997 to 2019, when Munira Wilson took over.
Like Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham experienced a brief Tory conversion in 2015 following aggressive campaigning in Lib Dem seats by Conservative candidates.
Wilson’s chief competitors are expected to be Conservative Jonathan Hulley and Labour’s Tom Bruce.
Esher and Walton
Esher and Walton is likely to be a more competitive seat and could see disruption in Tory heartlands.
Despite numerous boundary redraws, the area has been a consistent Tory safe seat for more than a century and its current MP is prominent conservative Dominic Raab, who previously served as deputy Prime Minister and Brexit Secretary.
“As previously one of the safest Conservative seats in the country the race in Esher and Walton will be very tight,” said Monica Harding, Lib-Dem candidate for Esher and Walton.
In the previous election, the Liberal Democrats were able to significantly close the gap and lost by only 4.4% of the vote.
2024 predictions forecast a Lib Dem victory, signifying a much larger breakthrough into the ‘blue wall’ by the Liberal Democrats.
“In 2019 I came within 2,700 votes of beating Dominic Raab destroying his majority and we are continuing to build on that momentum. Just weeks ago, in May’s local elections, we took 43% of the vote against the Conservatives 29%,” said Harding.
There are several factors that have contributed to growing Conservative unpopularity in the seat. The constituency voted remain in the EU referendum, however Raab’s tenure as Brexit secretary, and his 2018 drafted Brexit withdrawal agreement contributed to his unpopularity, according to The Independent.
Raab has since announced he would be standing down in the election after an inquiry upheld allegations of bullying. The seat will now be defended by Cllr John Cope.
Epsom and Ewell
Epsom and Ewell is another historic Conservative safe seat at risk of being lost in the election.
Home to former justice and transport secretary Chris Grayling, it is likely that the constituency will go to Labour in the coming election, according to the Electoral Calculus May 27 prediction and the Financial Times May 30 prediction.
Labour candidate Mark Todd has criticised both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, saying: “We should not forget that the problems really started under the Coalition Government which slashed funding for public services in Surrey to unsustainable levels.
“This is why our roads are crumbling, our hospitals are collapsing, and nothing seems to work anymore.”
Like the Liberal Democrats, Todd is also focusing on environmental issues including water pollution in the Thames and Hogsmill rivers.
The Conservative Party is still to announce candidates in other nearby constituencies, including Spelthorne, Woking and Surrey Heath – where Michael Gove announced he is standing down last week.
Current predictions show the Liberal Democrats and Labour will likely make gains in many former safe seats in the area, of which many were home to senior Conservative members.
Labour will have to prove that, despite Liberal Democrat claims, they are a viable alternative to the Conservatives in the Greater London and South-East regions.
The election will take place on July 4 and the majority of results will be announced the following day.
Political Editor and Reporter for the Kingston Courier
